If you don’t emotionally believe in enough uncertainty to use normal reasoning methods like “what else has to go right for the future to go well and how likely does that feel”, or “what level of superintelligence can this handle before we need a better plan”, and you want to think about the end to end result of an action, and you don’t want to use explicit math or language, I think you’re stuck. I’m not aware of anyone who has successfully used the dignity frame—maybe habryka? It seems to replace estimating EV with something much more poorly defined which, depending on your attitude towards it, may or may not be positively correlated with what you care about. I also think doing this inner sim end-to-end adds a lot more noise than just thinking about whether the action accomplishes some proximal goal.
If you don’t emotionally believe in enough uncertainty to use normal reasoning methods like “what else has to go right for the future to go well and how likely does that feel”, or “what level of superintelligence can this handle before we need a better plan”, and you want to think about the end to end result of an action, and you don’t want to use explicit math or language, I think you’re stuck. I’m not aware of anyone who has successfully used the dignity frame—maybe habryka? It seems to replace estimating EV with something much more poorly defined which, depending on your attitude towards it, may or may not be positively correlated with what you care about. I also think doing this inner sim end-to-end adds a lot more noise than just thinking about whether the action accomplishes some proximal goal.