The same day this was posted, Sri Muppidi at The Information shared some new projections for OpenAI’s finances for 2025-2030.[1] The graph includes 3 projections: R&D compute cost, Inference compute cost, and Revenue.
OpenAI is not projecting current growth rates to continue. Comparing to the previous data, these projection show a much lower rate of growth.
R&D compute cost is not just projected to grow slower than an exponential over the next 5 years, it is projected to grow slower than a linear trend. Or, if we treat this as a logistic curve that has had exponential growth in the past, OpenAI is projecting that we will reach the point of steepest growth next year, and that the leveling off will be apparent in 2-3 years.
Compared to the previous projections, these projections suggest that OpenAI will be cash flow positive by 2027, not 2029 - assuming that R&D compute and Inference compute constitute most of their total costs. They also suggest that OpenAI currently has enough capital to last until then.
The revenue projections are not that different from the previous ones ($55B vs $60B for 2027), so it seems as though OpenAI is now projecting that it will spend less over the next few years than it previously projected. I think that the main difference is that compute is not the total costs. If we include the unspecified other costs, the projection might be the same as before.
To get to “R&D costs amount to ~45% of total revenue in 2030”, there is also around $40B of other research spending—which seems to be mostly “compensation costs.”
The same day this was posted, Sri Muppidi at The Information shared some new projections for OpenAI’s finances for 2025-2030.[1] The graph includes 3 projections: R&D compute cost, Inference compute cost, and Revenue.
OpenAI is not projecting current growth rates to continue. Comparing to the previous data, these projection show a much lower rate of growth.
R&D compute cost is not just projected to grow slower than an exponential over the next 5 years, it is projected to grow slower than a linear trend. Or, if we treat this as a logistic curve that has had exponential growth in the past, OpenAI is projecting that we will reach the point of steepest growth next year, and that the leveling off will be apparent in 2-3 years.
Compared to the previous projections, these projections suggest that OpenAI will be cash flow positive by 2027, not 2029 - assuming that R&D compute and Inference compute constitute most of their total costs. They also suggest that OpenAI currently has enough capital to last until then.
The revenue projections are not that different from the previous ones ($55B vs $60B for 2027), so it seems as though OpenAI is now projecting that it will spend less over the next few years than it previously projected. I think that the main difference is that compute is not the total costs. If we include the unspecified other costs, the projection might be the same as before.
To get to “R&D costs amount to ~45% of total revenue in 2030”, there is also around $40B of other research spending—which seems to be mostly “compensation costs.”