OpenAI is a special case, they’ve captured the casual/free userbase. But my point is that ~$100bn per year is the current softcap (if capabilities don’t significantly improve), about this much is feasible with either monetization of free users or AI assistants for highly paid knowledge workers, and probably all the LLM-enabled apps (on foundation model company APIs) also add up to something. Right now, it’s not even clear if Anthropic or OpenAI will stumble first, since OpenAI’s API business is weaker and their free user base already nears saturation, it can’t keep growing very quickly for too long.
An interesting question is whether $250-500bn per year is feasible for one company within the current adoption wave, because that enables 10-20 GW training systems. There’s a lot OpenAI might be able to do to monetize their users, and also they might be able to become competitive through API. The on-site casual users won’t leave them at the drop of a hat even if their products are slightly worse than those of their competitors, while the API users will easily switch to them if their products become better. So apart from Google, OpenAI seems to be the best positioned for becoming able to build the largest training systems.
OpenAI is a special case, they’ve captured the casual/free userbase. But my point is that ~$100bn per year is the current softcap (if capabilities don’t significantly improve), about this much is feasible with either monetization of free users or AI assistants for highly paid knowledge workers, and probably all the LLM-enabled apps (on foundation model company APIs) also add up to something. Right now, it’s not even clear if Anthropic or OpenAI will stumble first, since OpenAI’s API business is weaker and their free user base already nears saturation, it can’t keep growing very quickly for too long.
An interesting question is whether $250-500bn per year is feasible for one company within the current adoption wave, because that enables 10-20 GW training systems. There’s a lot OpenAI might be able to do to monetize their users, and also they might be able to become competitive through API. The on-site casual users won’t leave them at the drop of a hat even if their products are slightly worse than those of their competitors, while the API users will easily switch to them if their products become better. So apart from Google, OpenAI seems to be the best positioned for becoming able to build the largest training systems.