I agree the arguments are very informal and could easily be wrong, but they seem plausible enough that I wouldn’t say “I don’t believe that these anthropic considerations actually apply, either to us, to oracles, or to Solomonoff induction.” (I would instead say “I’m very uncertain and think these considerations may or may not actually apply.”) Can you explain more why you’re more certain about this?
I agree the arguments are very informal and could easily be wrong, but they seem plausible enough that I wouldn’t say “I don’t believe that these anthropic considerations actually apply, either to us, to oracles, or to Solomonoff induction.” (I would instead say “I’m very uncertain and think these considerations may or may not actually apply.”) Can you explain more why you’re more certain about this?
I changed my mind since then: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/KAifhdKr96kMre2zy/changing-my-mind-about-christiano-s-malign-prior-argument