Why are you allowed to see what others predicted before you make a prediction yourself? That seems like it would wholly bias people...
This is a good point. Depending on what exactly you are using it for, you might or might not want to see others’ predictions before you make your own. It would be a useful feature to be able to toggle that functionality on/off in the user settings.
Edit: Why are you allowed to see what others predicted before you make a prediction yourself? That seems like it would wholly bias people...
One should be able to usefully incorporate other people’s opinions, if only to adjust in the opposite direction!
As well, it’d be something of a UI/usability nightmare. If you really want to avoid contamination/additional information, make your own prediction and set it private or something.
A less boring strategy: make two accounts, one assigning probabilities based on your intuition alone; the other based on the average of the listed predictions. Compare their calibrations.
I’ve decided to sign up. I don’t know why I dismissed this several times the first few times I saw it on here, it looks really interesting...
Edit: Why are you allowed to see what others predicted before you make a prediction yourself? That seems like it would wholly bias people...
This is a good point. Depending on what exactly you are using it for, you might or might not want to see others’ predictions before you make your own. It would be a useful feature to be able to toggle that functionality on/off in the user settings.
One should be able to usefully incorporate other people’s opinions, if only to adjust in the opposite direction!
As well, it’d be something of a UI/usability nightmare. If you really want to avoid contamination/additional information, make your own prediction and set it private or something.
I contemplated a strategy of always taking the average of the listed predictions. But that would be boring.
A less boring strategy: make two accounts, one assigning probabilities based on your intuition alone; the other based on the average of the listed predictions. Compare their calibrations.