The research of Philip Tetlock shows that forecasters achieve better Brier scores when they exaggerate their confidence.
They showed that it’s good to extremise the predictions of teams, when combining predictions that agree with each other, but I don’t think that individual forecasters were systematically underconfident.
They showed that it’s good to extremise the predictions of teams, when combining predictions that agree with each other, but I don’t think that individual forecasters were systematically underconfident.
Ah, interesting! Thanks for the catch.