Specifically I’m targeting futures that are at my top 20th percentile of rate of progress and safety difficulty.
Does this mean that you think AI takeover within 2 years is at least 20% likely?
Or are there scenarios where progress is even faster and safety is even more difficult than illustrated in your story and yet humanity avoids AI takeover?
Does this mean that you think AI takeover within 2 years is at least 20% likely?
Or are there scenarios where progress is even faster and safety is even more difficult than illustrated in your story and yet humanity avoids AI takeover?
Yes, at least 20% likely. My view is that the probability of AI takeover is around 50%.
Around 50% within 2 years or over all time?