You think something is 30% likely but a friend thinks 70%. To what does that change your opinion?
I feel like there can be specially-constructed problems when the result probability is 0, but haven’t been able to construct an example. Are there any?
There is a box which contains money iff the front and back are painted the same color. Each side is independently 30% to be blue, and 70% to be red. You observe that the front is blue, and your friend observes that the back is red.
“No one assigns 70% to this statement.” (Yes, your friend is an idiot, but that can be remedied, if needed, with a slight modification in the statement)
I’ve came across a poll about exchanging probability estimates with another rationalist: https://manifold.markets/1941159478/you-think-something-is-30-likely-bu?r=QW5U.
I feel like there can be specially-constructed problems when the result probability is 0, but haven’t been able to construct an example. Are there any?
There is a box which contains money iff the front and back are painted the same color. Each side is independently 30% to be blue, and 70% to be red. You observe that the front is blue, and your friend observes that the back is red.
“No one assigns 70% to this statement.” (Yes, your friend is an idiot, but that can be remedied, if needed, with a slight modification in the statement)