The complete unrolling of 2.5 (and thus 2.6) feel off if they are placed in the same chain of meta-reasoning. Specifically, Charlie doesn’t seem like she’s reacting to any chains at all, just the object-level aspect of Alex pegging Bailey as a downer. I can see how more layers of meta can arise in general, but in situations like these where a third person arrives after some events have already unfolded doesn’t feel like it fits that model very well—is the claim that Charlie does a subconscious tree search for various values of X that might have caused such a chain of interactions, and then draws conclusions about the baselessness of the ‘downer’ brand based on that?
It seems that a large subset of issues in situations like these but perhaps more grave is that Bailey does indeed do 2.6 exactly as stated, except it’s based on a non-existing chain in 2.5, leading to a quagmire of false understanding.
Specifically, Charlie doesn’t seem like she’s reacting to any chains at all, just the object-level aspect of Alex pegging Bailey as a downer.
I sort of agree. But in the cases where Charlie knows what happened, you might expect that their evaluation of whether Alex was right to conclude that Bailey is a downer might depend on the full chain of events.