That’s a ridiculously high confidence based on the data available. My models don’t even assign it higher than a low number. 0.2 sounds right; I would be a least four times more surprised if that happened than if it didn’t. Unless your models of E.Y. are dramatically better than the rest of us, and are providing additional evidence, I don’t think you can possibly justify that level of confidence rationally.
That’s a ridiculously high confidence based on the data available. My models don’t even assign it higher than a low number. 0.2 sounds right; I would be a least four times more surprised if that happened than if it didn’t. Unless your models of E.Y. are dramatically better than the rest of us, and are providing additional evidence, I don’t think you can possibly justify that level of confidence rationally.