The argument still shouldn’t work though. Every one of those bits of evidence that you’re the only guy around is counterbalanced by a doubling of the negative consequences if you’re wrong.
So yes, maybe Obama should assume he’s probably the only guy on earth, but his actions matter so massively much more in the tiny branch where he’s really the most powerful man in a world of billions of thinking living people, that he should still be working to optimize for it.
The argument still shouldn’t work though. Every one of those bits of evidence that you’re the only guy around is counterbalanced by a doubling of the negative consequences if you’re wrong.
So yes, maybe Obama should assume he’s probably the only guy on earth, but his actions matter so massively much more in the tiny branch where he’s really the most powerful man in a world of billions of thinking living people, that he should still be working to optimize for it.