Here’s something that I suspect is getting missed: AI… Even a hyperintelligent AI, doesn’t have hands. Even a post singularity AI can’t build a power plant or a transmission line. Furthermore, the map is not the territory, a hyperintelligent AI might be able to solve the string theory equations, and design a futuristic power plant, like Tony Stark’s arc reactor, but it’s <1% likely to be something we can build with present day tooling that we have at scale. We’re almost certainly going to have to (assuming that it gives us the designs) build new factories to build the tooling, to build the factories to build the tooling, to build the factory to build the arc reactors Likely (90%+). And that’s AFTER we build the exoscale LHC to validate the theoretical predictions (because any number of theories with valid math have been proven wrong). Who builds that? All of that is going to have to be built by humans, because we don’t have the robots, or the factories to build the robots, or… And during this time, civilization can’t “stop”, those humans still need to be fed, need entertainment, and sleep, and downtime. Sure, there may be more labor available since pretty much all office jobs will be gone, but training those humans to be useful an a construction site, or factory floor? Not so trivial.
And no guiding intelligence, regardless of how smart, can escape those constraints. It may be able to tell us exactly where to go to find the rare earths, but it can’t move the dirt, build the refinery, or fabricate the finished products.
Dyson spheres? Where is the rocketry? Orsay it does better than that, say, repulsive lift off of earth’s magnetic field, where are the miles of superconductors going to come from? New superconductive materials? Where’s the factory to build them? I doubt that you’re going to just “retool” a present wire drawing factory to draw unobtanium dioxide wire. Where’s the asteroid mining infrastructure going to come from in the 5 year timescale?
IF the Manhattan project had been furnished ab initio with a complete blueprint of an A bomb, complete with BOM, where to source the required materials, it would STILL have taken likely 4 years to build the first one. Oak ridge wasn’t built in a day. And that’s to build a single 5 ton device, now thousands of power plants, thousands of mines, refineries, fabs, thousands of miles of transmission lines, etcetera. the scale of 1000x ing power generation is similarly 1000X the scale of the manhattan project or the moonshot.
A superintellignece can accelerate all of this, most definitely, but only SO much. you can’t build an Iphone with a rock. Even with a detailed schematic.
Thank you!
Here’s something that I suspect is getting missed: AI… Even a hyperintelligent AI, doesn’t have hands. Even a post singularity AI can’t build a power plant or a transmission line. Furthermore, the map is not the territory, a hyperintelligent AI might be able to solve the string theory equations, and design a futuristic power plant, like Tony Stark’s arc reactor, but it’s <1% likely to be something we can build with present day tooling that we have at scale. We’re almost certainly going to have to (assuming that it gives us the designs) build new factories to build the tooling, to build the factories to build the tooling, to build the factory to build the arc reactors Likely (90%+). And that’s AFTER we build the exoscale LHC to validate the theoretical predictions (because any number of theories with valid math have been proven wrong). Who builds that? All of that is going to have to be built by humans, because we don’t have the robots, or the factories to build the robots, or… And during this time, civilization can’t “stop”, those humans still need to be fed, need entertainment, and sleep, and downtime. Sure, there may be more labor available since pretty much all office jobs will be gone, but training those humans to be useful an a construction site, or factory floor? Not so trivial.
And no guiding intelligence, regardless of how smart, can escape those constraints. It may be able to tell us exactly where to go to find the rare earths, but it can’t move the dirt, build the refinery, or fabricate the finished products.
Dyson spheres? Where is the rocketry? Orsay it does better than that, say, repulsive lift off of earth’s magnetic field, where are the miles of superconductors going to come from? New superconductive materials? Where’s the factory to build them? I doubt that you’re going to just “retool” a present wire drawing factory to draw unobtanium dioxide wire. Where’s the asteroid mining infrastructure going to come from in the 5 year timescale?
IF the Manhattan project had been furnished ab initio with a complete blueprint of an A bomb, complete with BOM, where to source the required materials, it would STILL have taken likely 4 years to build the first one. Oak ridge wasn’t built in a day. And that’s to build a single 5 ton device, now thousands of power plants, thousands of mines, refineries, fabs, thousands of miles of transmission lines, etcetera. the scale of 1000x ing power generation is similarly 1000X the scale of the manhattan project or the moonshot.
A superintellignece can accelerate all of this, most definitely, but only SO much. you can’t build an Iphone with a rock. Even with a detailed schematic.