Rereading this reminds me of something Gelman said, about people who
strain on the gnat of the prior distribution while swallowing the camel that is the likelihood.
In his post, Karnofsky has strained at the gnat of the prior of high-impact interventions existing while swallowing the camel of the normal/log-normal distributions.
Rereading this reminds me of something Gelman said, about people who
In his post, Karnofsky has strained at the gnat of the prior of high-impact interventions existing while swallowing the camel of the normal/log-normal distributions.