Sahil’s version of FGF makes many empirical predictions. In the spring of this year, we’re going to focus on listing them, so there’ll be a better answer to your question. In the context of the OP, one such prediction is that sim-Abram will have difficulty engaging in the outside world, even with some contact with real-Abram (but obviously this prediction isn’t very near-term).
With respect to your specific concern, I have a similar worry that Sahil’s FGF won’t be readily falsified by practical autonomy experiments. Full FOOM-level autonomy requires AI to replace the whole global economy; anything less will still involve “dependence on humans”.
However, it also seems plausible to me that Sahil’s FGF would make some falsifiable prediction about near-term performance on Vending-Bench 2.
Sahil’s version of FGF makes many empirical predictions. In the spring of this year, we’re going to focus on listing them, so there’ll be a better answer to your question. In the context of the OP, one such prediction is that sim-Abram will have difficulty engaging in the outside world, even with some contact with real-Abram (but obviously this prediction isn’t very near-term).
With respect to your specific concern, I have a similar worry that Sahil’s FGF won’t be readily falsified by practical autonomy experiments. Full FOOM-level autonomy requires AI to replace the whole global economy; anything less will still involve “dependence on humans”.
However, it also seems plausible to me that Sahil’s FGF would make some falsifiable prediction about near-term performance on Vending-Bench 2.