Booking predictions seems great, but did you also write things like: If my assumption x holds, I expect … If my assumption x does not hold, I expect …
This seems important to me if you’re aiming to update your models in a somewhat bias-resistant fashion. (though I realize that it may get quite complicated) Only knowing that you made a particular incorrect prediction allows quite a bit of freedom to explain the error away while holding on to the assumptions you’re most attached to.
But I’m very happy you’re doing this at all! (including the encouraging-others-to-predict part)
Booking predictions seems great, but did you also write things like:
If my assumption x holds, I expect …
If my assumption x does not hold, I expect …
This seems important to me if you’re aiming to update your models in a somewhat bias-resistant fashion. (though I realize that it may get quite complicated)
Only knowing that you made a particular incorrect prediction allows quite a bit of freedom to explain the error away while holding on to the assumptions you’re most attached to.
But I’m very happy you’re doing this at all! (including the encouraging-others-to-predict part)