There’s technological maturity. Before broad technological maturity, there’s narrower technological maturity of being ready to move towards broad technological maturity by following a clear/concrete plan. So the concept can be rescued, it’s gesturing at a real thing.
(Vinge’s concept is about an unusual difficulty with concrete prediction. There’s probably something to that effect as well in the intended sense, a qualitative phase change to how the world looks, though some general things can still be predicted.)
There’s technological maturity. Before broad technological maturity, there’s narrower technological maturity of being ready to move towards broad technological maturity by following a clear/concrete plan. So the concept can be rescued, it’s gesturing at a real thing.
(Vinge’s concept is about an unusual difficulty with concrete prediction. There’s probably something to that effect as well in the intended sense, a qualitative phase change to how the world looks, though some general things can still be predicted.)