Exactly that—they profit under different circumstances, and that affects the number of investors willing to bet on right-tail possibilities for them:
NVDA has a right-tail outcome as long as AI companies are still doing well in 2030, which is a very broad space of worlds. Maybe AGI happens, maybe it doesn’t but they make a good pitch for more runway, maybe the U.S. government decides they’re too big to fail and props them up.
SPY has a right-tail outcome iff AI becomes sufficiently general to have wide-ranging positive impacts on the broader economy AND the economy is sufficiently dynamic to adopt it successfully within four years AND these positive impacts are not offset by the instability of the transition.
The former might attract pragmatists, but the latter is only a good bet if you’re a true believer in AGI soon. If you are, it’s a much more profitable bet.
Exactly that—they profit under different circumstances, and that affects the number of investors willing to bet on right-tail possibilities for them:
NVDA has a right-tail outcome as long as AI companies are still doing well in 2030, which is a very broad space of worlds. Maybe AGI happens, maybe it doesn’t but they make a good pitch for more runway, maybe the U.S. government decides they’re too big to fail and props them up.
SPY has a right-tail outcome iff AI becomes sufficiently general to have wide-ranging positive impacts on the broader economy AND the economy is sufficiently dynamic to adopt it successfully within four years AND these positive impacts are not offset by the instability of the transition.
The former might attract pragmatists, but the latter is only a good bet if you’re a true believer in AGI soon. If you are, it’s a much more profitable bet.