I’m having a bit of a hard time reconstructing my meaning from two years ago I’m afraid! Clearly it does violate conservation of expected evidence, so I can only think that it’s offered as a way to combat overconfidence bias than actually meant as a way that a ideal reasoner would update on the evidence. Or I’m just trying too hard to sound clever...
Of course. If you know others who share your belief, that’s a cause for worry, and if you know no-one who does, that’s also a cause for worry.
Doesn’t that violate conservation of expected evidence? Or are you saying that this article was a cause for worry?
I’m having a bit of a hard time reconstructing my meaning from two years ago I’m afraid! Clearly it does violate conservation of expected evidence, so I can only think that it’s offered as a way to combat overconfidence bias than actually meant as a way that a ideal reasoner would update on the evidence. Or I’m just trying too hard to sound clever...
OK. So I can only stop worrying if exactly 1 person shares my belief? :-P
You can stop worrying after your brain’s been properly frozen. The question is what to worry about.