We look at the strengths and weaknesses of two existing definitions of existential risk, and suggest a new definition based on expected value. This leads to a parallel concept: ‘existential hope’, the chance of something extremely good happening.
I think MIRI and CSER may be naturally understood as organisations trying to reduce existential risk and increase existential hope respectively (although if MIRI is aiming to build a safe AI this is also seeking to increase existential hope). What other world states could we aim for that increase existential hope?
Existential Risk and Existential Hope: Definitions
I’m pleased to announce Existential Risk and Existential Hope: Definitions, a short new FHI technical report.