If anyone cares, my own current take (see here) is “it’s not completely crazy to hope for uploads to precede non-upload-AGI by up to a couple years, with truly heroic effort and exceedingly good luck on numerous fronts at once”. (Prior to writing that post six months ago, I was even more pessimistic.) More than a couple years’ window continues to seem completely crazy to me.
If anyone cares, my own current take (see here) is “it’s not completely crazy to hope for uploads to precede non-upload-AGI by up to a couple years, with truly heroic effort and exceedingly good luck on numerous fronts at once”. (Prior to writing that post six months ago, I was even more pessimistic.) More than a couple years’ window continues to seem completely crazy to me.