It’s interesting that the quantitative predictions for capabilities (benchmarks & revenue) are getting graded rigorously, but the qualitative claims about alignment remain essentially unfalsifiable at the prediction stage. We can’t grade “the model was aligned” until something goes properly wrong.
The mechanistic interpretability work happening now (steering vectors, circuit analysis) might eventually give us quantitative alignment metrics that are as gradeable as SWE-bench scores. Until then, “aligned” is a claim, not a measurement.
It’s interesting that the quantitative predictions for capabilities (benchmarks & revenue) are getting graded rigorously, but the qualitative claims about alignment remain essentially unfalsifiable at the prediction stage. We can’t grade “the model was aligned” until something goes properly wrong.
The mechanistic interpretability work happening now (steering vectors, circuit analysis) might eventually give us quantitative alignment metrics that are as gradeable as SWE-bench scores. Until then, “aligned” is a claim, not a measurement.