I think this is missing the point of the date of AI Takeover is not the day the AI takes over, that the point of no return might appear much earlier than when Skynet decides to launch the nukes. Like, I think the default outcome in a gradualist world is ‘Moloch wins’, and there’s no fire alarm that allows for derailment once it’s clear that things are not headed in the right direction.
For example, I don’t think it was the case 5 years ago that a lot of stock value was downstream of AI investment, but this is used elsewhere on this very page as an argument against bans on AI development now. Is that consideration going to be better or worse, in five years? I don’t think it was obvious five years ago that OpenAI was going to split over disagreements on alignment—but now it has, and I don’t see the global ‘trial and error’ system repairing that wound rather than just rolling with it.
I think the current situation looks bad and just letting it develop without intervention will mean things get worse faster than things get better.
I think this is missing the point of the date of AI Takeover is not the day the AI takes over, that the point of no return might appear much earlier than when Skynet decides to launch the nukes. Like, I think the default outcome in a gradualist world is ‘Moloch wins’, and there’s no fire alarm that allows for derailment once it’s clear that things are not headed in the right direction.
For example, I don’t think it was the case 5 years ago that a lot of stock value was downstream of AI investment, but this is used elsewhere on this very page as an argument against bans on AI development now. Is that consideration going to be better or worse, in five years? I don’t think it was obvious five years ago that OpenAI was going to split over disagreements on alignment—but now it has, and I don’t see the global ‘trial and error’ system repairing that wound rather than just rolling with it.
I think the current situation looks bad and just letting it develop without intervention will mean things get worse faster than things get better.