Nah, my argument was “Well, the crux of the issue is that the random AIs may be more likely to leave us alone than near-misses at FAI.” , by the ‘may’, I meant, there is a notable probability that far less than 99.9999% of the balls in the jar are red, and consequently, far greater than 0.0001% probability of drawing a non-red ball.
edit: Furthermore, suppose we have a jar with 100 balls in which we know there is at least one blue ball (near-FAI space), and a huge jar with 100000 balls, about which we don’t know quite a lot, and which has substantial probability of having a larger fraction of non-red balls than the former jar.
edit: also, re probability distributions, that’s why i said a “range of some sort”. Humans don’t seem to quite do the convolutions and the like on probability distributions when thinking.
Nah, my argument was “Well, the crux of the issue is that the random AIs may be more likely to leave us alone than near-misses at FAI.” , by the ‘may’, I meant, there is a notable probability that far less than 99.9999% of the balls in the jar are red, and consequently, far greater than 0.0001% probability of drawing a non-red ball.
edit: Furthermore, suppose we have a jar with 100 balls in which we know there is at least one blue ball (near-FAI space), and a huge jar with 100000 balls, about which we don’t know quite a lot, and which has substantial probability of having a larger fraction of non-red balls than the former jar.
edit: also, re probability distributions, that’s why i said a “range of some sort”. Humans don’t seem to quite do the convolutions and the like on probability distributions when thinking.