I do not expect this theory to last, or even be true, but it has the highest probability of being correct.
Quoth Anna: “If you can predict what you’ll believe a few years from now, consider believing that already.” If you have evidence that future evidence will require you to adjust your belief in a particular direction, then according to the laws of probability theory, you have evidence on which you’re failing to update your current belief.
Stress on the particular direction. Expecting to change, but not any particular direction just calls for lowering confidence. But this is just a quibble about the phrasing. As applied here, it does actually work.
Quoth Anna: “If you can predict what you’ll believe a few years from now, consider believing that already.” If you have evidence that future evidence will require you to adjust your belief in a particular direction, then according to the laws of probability theory, you have evidence on which you’re failing to update your current belief.
Anyway, aside from that in particular, you’re pretty confused about several things, and I’m wondering if you’ve read “A Technical Explanation of Technical Explanation” and the sequences “Mysterious Answers to Mysterious Questions” and “Reductionism)”.
Stress on the particular direction. Expecting to change, but not any particular direction just calls for lowering confidence. But this is just a quibble about the phrasing. As applied here, it does actually work.