My suspicion is the most instructive cases to look at (Modern AI really is too new a field to have much to go on in terms of mature safety standards) is how the regulation of Nuclear and Radiation safety has evolved over time. Early research suggested some serious X-Risks that didn’t pan out for either scientific (igniting the atmosphere) or logistical/political reasons (cobalt bombs, tsar bomba scale H bombs) thankfully, but some risks arising more out of the political domain (having big gnarly nuclear war anyway) still exist that could certainly make it a less fun planet to live on. I suspect the successes and failures of the nuclear treaty system could be instructive here with the push to integrate big AI into military heirachies, as regulating nukes is something almost everyone agrees is a very good idea, but have had a less than stellar history of compliance.
They are likely out of scope for whataever your goal is here, but I do think they need serious study because without it, our attempts at regulation will just push unsafe AI to less savory juristictions.
My suspicion is the most instructive cases to look at (Modern AI really is too new a field to have much to go on in terms of mature safety standards) is how the regulation of Nuclear and Radiation safety has evolved over time. Early research suggested some serious X-Risks that didn’t pan out for either scientific (igniting the atmosphere) or logistical/political reasons (cobalt bombs, tsar bomba scale H bombs) thankfully, but some risks arising more out of the political domain (having big gnarly nuclear war anyway) still exist that could certainly make it a less fun planet to live on. I suspect the successes and failures of the nuclear treaty system could be instructive here with the push to integrate big AI into military heirachies, as regulating nukes is something almost everyone agrees is a very good idea, but have had a less than stellar history of compliance.
They are likely out of scope for whataever your goal is here, but I do think they need serious study because without it, our attempts at regulation will just push unsafe AI to less savory juristictions.