6 years later, this is looking too optimistic. Some subsequent (or not visible/salient at the time) governance failures:
Failing to pivot on zero-COVID policy, after Omicron made clear that infection rate and hence policy cost would be much higher.
Making real-estate a too large part of the economy, and housing costs too high (in part to fund government through higher land sale revenue). Subsequent RE bust causing large decreases in household wealth.
Various policies contributing to “involution” or excessive competition, leading e.g. 14 hour school days for 13yos, and overcapacity/loss-making in many industrial sectors.
Holding one-child policy for too long, which together with 2 and 3 (and other factors) causing TFR to drop to 1.02.
Foreign policy failures, e.g. wolf warrior diplomacy, Belt and Road Initiative.
Xi consolidating power, making subsequent policy failures more likely, due to fewer opportunities/incentives for criticism and debate.
6 years later, this is looking too optimistic. Some subsequent (or not visible/salient at the time) governance failures:
Failing to pivot on zero-COVID policy, after Omicron made clear that infection rate and hence policy cost would be much higher.
Making real-estate a too large part of the economy, and housing costs too high (in part to fund government through higher land sale revenue). Subsequent RE bust causing large decreases in household wealth.
Various policies contributing to “involution” or excessive competition, leading e.g. 14 hour school days for 13yos, and overcapacity/loss-making in many industrial sectors.
Holding one-child policy for too long, which together with 2 and 3 (and other factors) causing TFR to drop to 1.02.
Foreign policy failures, e.g. wolf warrior diplomacy, Belt and Road Initiative.
Xi consolidating power, making subsequent policy failures more likely, due to fewer opportunities/incentives for criticism and debate.