I saw this good talk on the Manifest youtube channel about using historical circumstances to calibrate predictions—this seems better for training than regular forecasting because you have faster feedback loop between the prediction and the resolution.
I wanted to know if anyone had recommendations on where to find some software or site where I can do more examples of this (I already know about the estimation game). I would do this myself, but it seems like it would be pretty difficult to do the research on the situation without learning the outcome. I would also appreciate people giving takes about why this might be a bad way to get better at forecasting.
I saw this good talk on the Manifest youtube channel about using historical circumstances to calibrate predictions—this seems better for training than regular forecasting because you have faster feedback loop between the prediction and the resolution.
I wanted to know if anyone had recommendations on where to find some software or site where I can do more examples of this (I already know about the estimation game). I would do this myself, but it seems like it would be pretty difficult to do the research on the situation without learning the outcome. I would also appreciate people giving takes about why this might be a bad way to get better at forecasting.