Personally I treat this as an upper bound on how much compute it might take, and hold the estimates of when compute will become available quite lightly. Nonetheless, IMO serious discussion of timelines should at least be able to describe specific disagreements with the report and identify which differing assumptions give rise to each.

I think that the best available starting point is the Cotra / OpenPhil report on biological anchors.

Personally I treat this as an upper bound on how much compute it might take, and hold the estimates of when compute will become available quite lightly. Nonetheless, IMO serious discussion of timelines should at least be able to describe specific disagreements with the report and identify which differing assumptions give rise to each.

Upper bound so there’s a high chance that it will come more quickly than

that.