That seems so obviously correct as a starting point, not sure why the community here doesn’t agree by default. My prior for each potential IQ increase would be that diminishing returns would kick in—I would only update against when actual data comes in disproving that.
Well, we can just see empirically that linear models predict outliers pretty well for existing traits. For example, here’s a graph the polygenic score for Shawn Bradley, a 7′6″ former NBA player. He does indeed show up as a very extreme data point on the graph:
I think your general point stands: if we pushed far enough into the tails of these predictors, the actual phenotypes would almost certainly diverge from the predicted phenotypes. But the simple linear models seem to hold quite well eithin the existing human distribution.
I think height is different to IQ in terms of effect. There are simple physical things that make you bigger, I expect height to be linear for much longer than IQ.
Then there are potential effects, like something seems linear until OOD, but such OOD samples don’t exist because they die before birth. If that was the case it would look like you could safely go OOD. Would certainly be easier if we had 1 million mice with such data to test on.
That seems so obviously correct as a starting point, not sure why the community here doesn’t agree by default. My prior for each potential IQ increase would be that diminishing returns would kick in—I would only update against when actual data comes in disproving that.
Well, we can just see empirically that linear models predict outliers pretty well for existing traits. For example, here’s a graph the polygenic score for Shawn Bradley, a 7′6″ former NBA player. He does indeed show up as a very extreme data point on the graph:
I think your general point stands: if we pushed far enough into the tails of these predictors, the actual phenotypes would almost certainly diverge from the predicted phenotypes. But the simple linear models seem to hold quite well eithin the existing human distribution.
I think height is different to IQ in terms of effect. There are simple physical things that make you bigger, I expect height to be linear for much longer than IQ.
Then there are potential effects, like something seems linear until OOD, but such OOD samples don’t exist because they die before birth. If that was the case it would look like you could safely go OOD. Would certainly be easier if we had 1 million mice with such data to test on.