Your decision is evidence. It’s just that if you knew before-hand that you were going to smoke, there’s nobody else that knew they’d smoke that does any better.
Thinking about it more, it’s just the idea of being certain about your future decisions that breaks it. I guess that means an ideal EDTist is a contradiction. If you assume that there’s some chance of doing something besides what EDT suggests, then it only gives the “never smoke” answer. If it gave “always smoke” then you’d be 99% sure or whatever, in which case the 1% who ended up not smoking would be better off.
Edit: No, that still doesn’t work. I don’t think you can count the 1% as using a different strategy. I’m going to have to think about this more.
Your decision is evidence. It’s just that if you knew before-hand that you were going to smoke, there’s nobody else that knew they’d smoke that does any better.
Thinking about it more, it’s just the idea of being certain about your future decisions that breaks it. I guess that means an ideal EDTist is a contradiction. If you assume that there’s some chance of doing something besides what EDT suggests, then it only gives the “never smoke” answer. If it gave “always smoke” then you’d be 99% sure or whatever, in which case the 1% who ended up not smoking would be better off.
Edit: No, that still doesn’t work. I don’t think you can count the 1% as using a different strategy. I’m going to have to think about this more.