I’m also reluctant to buy not-Obama futures right now because I think Obama’s chance of winning is closer to 75% and that the market will correct itself eventually and I’ll be able to buy right around the inflection point.
This would seem to suggest that it would be rational for you to be selling not-Obama futures now. Until the market reaches your prediction modified by your risk-aversion incentives and overhead.
This would seem to suggest that it would be rational for you to be selling not-Obama futures now. Until the market reaches your prediction modified by your risk-aversion incentives and overhead.