You could reasonably have predicted all of this before reading the book, using the outside view that most interesting things are false..
The argument that Polgar had so much success that he couldn’t possibly have failed to have some grand theory which was truly responsible for his success, fails in the way most inside views do. Much like my own inside view, a few days ago, when I lost my very large coffee cup in my very small apartment, searched the apartment about 10 times without finding it, and deciding that however incredible, it was no longer there. My inside view was telling me that I should be willing to bet $100 to $10 against finding it. I knew, of course, that the outside view would say that despite my certainty, it was still in the apartment. And predictably, it turned up within the next 24 hours.
You could reasonably have predicted all of this before reading the book, using the outside view that most interesting things are false..
The argument that Polgar had so much success that he couldn’t possibly have failed to have some grand theory which was truly responsible for his success, fails in the way most inside views do. Much like my own inside view, a few days ago, when I lost my very large coffee cup in my very small apartment, searched the apartment about 10 times without finding it, and deciding that however incredible, it was no longer there. My inside view was telling me that I should be willing to bet $100 to $10 against finding it. I knew, of course, that the outside view would say that despite my certainty, it was still in the apartment. And predictably, it turned up within the next 24 hours.