In the case of literal mugging by someone who forgot their gun and decided to talk about matrix instead, the large half is that if you pay you have less money for a potential mugger who, when asked for a proof, said, ok, and made a display appear in front of you, showing something impressive.
I remember this being one of the solutions people came up with in some of the very early discussions about Pascal’s mugging, but it is generally considered highly unsatisfactory. To keep from an action that would be seen positive-expected-sum by itself because one’s worried that “some Matrix Lord may appear with evidence in the future requiring my resources”, only worsens the problem transforming it into the muggerless and worse variety of Pascal’s mugging—which would prevent you from ever using any resources for any reasons, even ones considered prudent.
E.g. “Should I install a fire-alarm with 100 dollars for the purposes of early warning in cases of a fire?” “No, I will have then less resources in case a Matrix-Lord comes with evidence and requires them of me.” A mind that utilized such a logic would no longer even need a mugger in the first place to fall into insanity...
Besides even if we specified “require evidence before allocating resources” what is the limiting factor for what sort of evidence is to be considered good enough?
You might die before you meet some matrix lord, you know. Fire alarm wise, you’re in the clear. And if you have #1, it’s not pascal’s mugging situation, it’s “your utility function does not work at all” situation, you need to either use bounded utility or use speed prior (which makes priors for that smaller).
edit: and even if your priors are correct, you’re still facing the problem that your sums are not complete.
E.g. “Should I install a fire-alarm with 100 dollars for the purposes of early warning in cases of a fire?” “No, I will have then less resources in case a Matrix-Lord comes with evidence and requires them of me.” A mind that utilized such a logic would no longer even need a mugger in the first place to fall into insanity...
I am reminded of the Island Where Dreams Come True in The Voyage of the Dawn Treader, which is exactly what its name says. Not daydreams or longings, but all of your worst nightmares. Having once imagined a thing calls it into existence there.
The muggerless mugging follows from giving a hypothesis some credence just because you imagined it, otherwise called the Solomonoff prior. I recall Eliezer writing here some years ago that he did not have a solution. I don’t know if he has since found one.
I remember this being one of the solutions people came up with in some of the very early discussions about Pascal’s mugging, but it is generally considered highly unsatisfactory. To keep from an action that would be seen positive-expected-sum by itself because one’s worried that “some Matrix Lord may appear with evidence in the future requiring my resources”, only worsens the problem transforming it into the muggerless and worse variety of Pascal’s mugging—which would prevent you from ever using any resources for any reasons, even ones considered prudent.
E.g. “Should I install a fire-alarm with 100 dollars for the purposes of early warning in cases of a fire?” “No, I will have then less resources in case a Matrix-Lord comes with evidence and requires them of me.” A mind that utilized such a logic would no longer even need a mugger in the first place to fall into insanity...
Besides even if we specified “require evidence before allocating resources” what is the limiting factor for what sort of evidence is to be considered good enough?
You might die before you meet some matrix lord, you know. Fire alarm wise, you’re in the clear. And if you have #1, it’s not pascal’s mugging situation, it’s “your utility function does not work at all” situation, you need to either use bounded utility or use speed prior (which makes priors for that smaller).
edit: and even if your priors are correct, you’re still facing the problem that your sums are not complete.
I am reminded of the Island Where Dreams Come True in The Voyage of the Dawn Treader, which is exactly what its name says. Not daydreams or longings, but all of your worst nightmares. Having once imagined a thing calls it into existence there.
The muggerless mugging follows from giving a hypothesis some credence just because you imagined it, otherwise called the Solomonoff prior. I recall Eliezer writing here some years ago that he did not have a solution. I don’t know if he has since found one.