It seems to me, given my preferences, about which I am not logically omniscient, [...]
I’d say your preference can’t possibly influence the probability of this event. To clear up the air, can you explain how does taking into account your preference influence the estimate? Better, how does the estimate break up on the different defeaters (events making the positive outcome impossible)?
Sorry, I should have been more clear: my preferences influence the possible interpretations of the word ‘save’. I wouldn’t consider surviving indefinitely but without my preferences being systematically fulfilled ‘saved’, for instance; more like damned.
I’d say your preference can’t possibly influence the probability of this event. To clear up the air, can you explain how does taking into account your preference influence the estimate? Better, how does the estimate break up on the different defeaters (events making the positive outcome impossible)?
Sorry, I should have been more clear: my preferences influence the possible interpretations of the word ‘save’. I wouldn’t consider surviving indefinitely but without my preferences being systematically fulfilled ‘saved’, for instance; more like damned.