In those 15 years, indefinite life extension may be invented, so the calculation is less obvious than that. I haven’t done any explicit calculations, but if the mid-21st century is a plausible time for such inventions, then the chances of indefinite life extension through cryonics, though non-negligible, shouldn’t be of a different order of magnitude than the chances of indefinite life extension through e.g. quitting smoking or being female.
In those 15 years, indefinite life extension may be invented, so the calculation is less obvious than that. I haven’t done any explicit calculations, but if the mid-21st century is a plausible time for such inventions, then the chances of indefinite life extension through cryonics, though non-negligible, shouldn’t be of a different order of magnitude than the chances of indefinite life extension through e.g. quitting smoking or being female.