If you’re actually right eighty percent of the time, it merely makes you accurate—but beware of confirmation and hindsight bias here. I’m not sure I’d trust that kind of impression unless I’d asked someone to take notes for me or set up some kind of automated process; too many chances for things to go wrong otherwise.
When I’ve found myself being annoyed by slow and timid drivers I don’t recall having any particular thoughts about their gender, but I have often thought that they’re probably old. Which I also feel is confirmed more often than not—but I’ll be the first to admit that I might harbor some irrationalities regarding the elderly, and I think the priors are probably against me here. But it certainly fits the cultural script!
and I think the priors are probably against me here
How so? It would be strange if there were no difference between “driving habits of the elderly” versus the non-elderly. Given how strongly these groups differ in all sorts of biological / sociological / cultural characteristics.
Oh, I’m sure there are some differences in driving habits. The question is whether those differences in habits are large enough to overwhelm the differences in base rate, and I’d expect to see a lot more young to middle-aged people on the road than elderly people—particularly in the rush-hour traffic where I was putting in most of my driving hours.
I didn’t feel that there were disproportionate numbers of slow and timid elderly drivers, after all, I felt that a randomly selected slow, timid driver was probably elderly—and I’d take a bet that that isn’t objectively the case, contrary to my subjective impressions.
If you’re actually right eighty percent of the time, it merely makes you accurate—but beware of confirmation and hindsight bias here. I’m not sure I’d trust that kind of impression unless I’d asked someone to take notes for me or set up some kind of automated process; too many chances for things to go wrong otherwise.
When I’ve found myself being annoyed by slow and timid drivers I don’t recall having any particular thoughts about their gender, but I have often thought that they’re probably old. Which I also feel is confirmed more often than not—but I’ll be the first to admit that I might harbor some irrationalities regarding the elderly, and I think the priors are probably against me here. But it certainly fits the cultural script!
A self-admitted misogerontist, oh dear.
How so? It would be strange if there were no difference between “driving habits of the elderly” versus the non-elderly. Given how strongly these groups differ in all sorts of biological / sociological / cultural characteristics.
Oh, I’m sure there are some differences in driving habits. The question is whether those differences in habits are large enough to overwhelm the differences in base rate, and I’d expect to see a lot more young to middle-aged people on the road than elderly people—particularly in the rush-hour traffic where I was putting in most of my driving hours.
I didn’t feel that there were disproportionate numbers of slow and timid elderly drivers, after all, I felt that a randomly selected slow, timid driver was probably elderly—and I’d take a bet that that isn’t objectively the case, contrary to my subjective impressions.