Would this help with the simulation goal hypothesized in the OP? It’s asking how often different types of AGIs would be created. A lot of the variance is probably carried in what sort of species and civilization is making the AGI, but some of it is carried by specific twists that happen near the creation of AGI. Getting a president like Trump and having him survive the (fairly likely) assasination attempt(s) is one such impactful twist. So I guess sampling around those uncertain impactful twists would be valuable in refining the estimate of, say, how frequently a relatively wise and cautious species would create misaligned AGI due to bad twists and vice-versa.
Thanks, I get it now.
Would this help with the simulation goal hypothesized in the OP? It’s asking how often different types of AGIs would be created. A lot of the variance is probably carried in what sort of species and civilization is making the AGI, but some of it is carried by specific twists that happen near the creation of AGI. Getting a president like Trump and having him survive the (fairly likely) assasination attempt(s) is one such impactful twist. So I guess sampling around those uncertain impactful twists would be valuable in refining the estimate of, say, how frequently a relatively wise and cautious species would create misaligned AGI due to bad twists and vice-versa.
Hm.
New EA cause area just dropped: Strategic variance reduction in timelines with high P(doom).
BRB applying for funding