I don’t think you’re looking at the right quantity. You’re right that if what matters is how close you are to truth, but you have no clue what the truth is, then you should stick to the center of mass.
But I think that having a population distribution that’s closer to the probability distribution of the truth is more useful than individual beliefs. If 99% of people believe C, then positions L and R are not going to get any traction even if they are true. However, if 33% of people believe each of L, C, and R, then at least the true position has lots of supporters, whatever it is, and so arguments for the truth are more likely to be discovered.
I don’t think you’re looking at the right quantity. You’re right that if what matters is how close you are to truth, but you have no clue what the truth is, then you should stick to the center of mass.
But I think that having a population distribution that’s closer to the probability distribution of the truth is more useful than individual beliefs. If 99% of people believe C, then positions L and R are not going to get any traction even if they are true. However, if 33% of people believe each of L, C, and R, then at least the true position has lots of supporters, whatever it is, and so arguments for the truth are more likely to be discovered.