The question I think is interesting is: When you throw away probability information and keep only possibility information, like when you go from “a random ace was a spade” in Scenario 2 to “there was an ace which was a spade” in Scenario 1, when does that cause bias? How do you have to think about the information you have left? When can you just condition on your information being true, and when do you have to think about the probability that you would have been left with this information and not some other information?
The question I think is interesting is: When you throw away probability information and keep only possibility information, like when you go from “a random ace was a spade” in Scenario 2 to “there was an ace which was a spade” in Scenario 1, when does that cause bias? How do you have to think about the information you have left? When can you just condition on your information being true, and when do you have to think about the probability that you would have been left with this information and not some other information?