Summary:
We have an inner simulator: it predicts what’s happening and gets updated when there’s a surprise
It’s part of System I
It also outputs urges and reflexes
What it can do (try these out):
Predicting what happens next (start with a visualized scene)
Being surprised (visualize unlikely outcome, feel amount of surprise)
What will have gone wrong? (Visualize your plan to have gone wrong. What does your simulator tell you caused that?)
We also have Explicit/Verbal mode: arguments, calculations; it responds to “being told”...
We need both, they each have strengths and weaknesses
To profit from the inner simulator: ask it questions within a domain where it has lots of data
Garbage in, garbage out
Techniques for making use of the simulator:
Asking for examples in a conversation: this will feed it with useful data
Searching for Next Actions:
Goals are not the same as plans.
To make a goal into a plan, I always need to have a next action
Can be combined with Trigger-Action Planning
Murphyjitsu Technique:
Murphy’s Law: Everything that can go wrong will go wrong.
People suck at applying this: even when expecting the worst, people are over-optimistic
The Technique:
0. Select a goal
1. Outline the plan (including next actions, concrete steps, deadlines, and benchmarks. Be able to visualize the plan)
2. Surprise-o-meter: a message from the future tells you the plan failed. If you’re shocked: fine. If not: Go on.
3. Pre-hindsight: Construct a plausible narrative for what kept you succeeding (internal and external factors)
4. Bulletproofing: do a single action to remove the failure mode.
Iterate 2–4 until done
Summary:
We have an inner simulator: it predicts what’s happening and gets updated when there’s a surprise
It’s part of System I
It also outputs urges and reflexes
What it can do (try these out):
Predicting what happens next (start with a visualized scene)
Being surprised (visualize unlikely outcome, feel amount of surprise)
What will have gone wrong? (Visualize your plan to have gone wrong. What does your simulator tell you caused that?)
We also have Explicit/Verbal mode: arguments, calculations; it responds to “being told”...
We need both, they each have strengths and weaknesses
To profit from the inner simulator: ask it questions within a domain where it has lots of data
Garbage in, garbage out
Techniques for making use of the simulator:
Asking for examples in a conversation: this will feed it with useful data
Searching for Next Actions:
Goals are not the same as plans.
To make a goal into a plan, I always need to have a next action
Can be combined with Trigger-Action Planning
Murphyjitsu Technique:
Murphy’s Law: Everything that can go wrong will go wrong.
People suck at applying this: even when expecting the worst, people are over-optimistic
The Technique:
0. Select a goal
1. Outline the plan (including next actions, concrete steps, deadlines, and benchmarks. Be able to visualize the plan)
2. Surprise-o-meter: a message from the future tells you the plan failed. If you’re shocked: fine. If not: Go on.
3. Pre-hindsight: Construct a plausible narrative for what kept you succeeding (internal and external factors)
4. Bulletproofing: do a single action to remove the failure mode.
Iterate 2–4 until done