That extra capability only matters if it’s economically useful
I’m not even insisting that the extra capabilities matter. I’m insisting that you didn’t argue that they aren’t there (capabilities of big over small models, given CL or whatever other improvements). Or that the capability (rather than adoption) gap gets smaller. Whether the bigger models are economically useful is downstream of whether they’re importantly more capable, the question of relative capability is a key input to the outcome of adoption, while the question of adoption doesn’t inform the question of relative capability at all.
That extra capability only matters if it’s economically useful. Like I said before (and analogized with the mainframe vs. PC argument), the model being able to solve math conjectures is not useful for the white collar work that has repeatedly resisted automation with AI. More of that will not change the equilibrium.
That’s why I mentioned the reachable universe. Some amount of ASI-pilledness is necessary for a reasonable discussion about what happens when the bigger models saturate the status quo level of capabilities of the modern humanity.
Yes, and I think we’ve established the “further thing” is CL
What I said was
They still aren’t capable enough at whatever they aren’t in fact capable enough for. And those further things can have enormous TAM
The “further things” in my intended meaning are capabilities (and the accomplishment of the more difficult tasks), not methods.
I’m not even insisting that the extra capabilities matter. I’m insisting that you didn’t argue that they aren’t there (capabilities of big over small models, given CL or whatever other improvements). Or that the capability (rather than adoption) gap gets smaller. Whether the bigger models are economically useful is downstream of whether they’re importantly more capable, the question of relative capability is a key input to the outcome of adoption, while the question of adoption doesn’t inform the question of relative capability at all.
That’s why I mentioned the reachable universe. Some amount of ASI-pilledness is necessary for a reasonable discussion about what happens when the bigger models saturate the status quo level of capabilities of the modern humanity.
What I said was
The “further things” in my intended meaning are capabilities (and the accomplishment of the more difficult tasks), not methods.