Afaict that is using the slower trend which includes GPT-2 and GPT-3, so I would actually consider 8 hours in March 2027 to be a slowdown using the methodology I state above (extrapolating the 2024-2025 trend, which is notably faster than the trend estimated on METR’s web page).
(Why am I adding this epicycle? Mostly because imo it tracks reality better, but also I believe this is how Ryan thinks about progress, and I was responding to Ryan.)
This market pretty much exactly tracks whether it slows down or speeds up by 2027:
Afaict that is using the slower trend which includes GPT-2 and GPT-3, so I would actually consider 8 hours in March 2027 to be a slowdown using the methodology I state above (extrapolating the 2024-2025 trend, which is notably faster than the trend estimated on METR’s web page).
(Why am I adding this epicycle? Mostly because imo it tracks reality better, but also I believe this is how Ryan thinks about progress, and I was responding to Ryan.)