My guess that utopia happens and its inhabitants succeed in “bringing back” people preserved using cryonics is around 10%.
If you’re saying this because the probability that utopia happens is low, that’s unfair; if there’s no utopia, none of the other interventions work either, so you should also be multiplying their micromort amounts by 10%.
If you instead think that “bringing back people is possible even in principle” has a probability of 10%, that makes more sense but I think that’s way, way too low.
that’s unfair; if there’s no utopia, none of the other interventions work either,
You’re so right! Thanks for catching this.
I think I probably want to be clearer about the units of measurement being slightly different. Every intervention except the cryonics one are naively reducing acute micromorts, which can be converted into “microutopias” by multiplying by P(utopia). The cryonics one is about increasing microutopias, because the counterfactual is ~purely in utopian worlds.
If you’re saying this because the probability that utopia happens is low, that’s unfair; if there’s no utopia, none of the other interventions work either, so you should also be multiplying their micromort amounts by 10%.
If you instead think that “bringing back people is possible even in principle” has a probability of 10%, that makes more sense but I think that’s way, way too low.
You’re so right! Thanks for catching this.
I think I probably want to be clearer about the units of measurement being slightly different. Every intervention except the cryonics one are naively reducing acute micromorts, which can be converted into “microutopias” by multiplying by P(utopia). The cryonics one is about increasing microutopias, because the counterfactual is ~purely in utopian worlds.