It’s sad and true. For instance automatically thinking of reference classes for beliefs and strategies can be useful but I don’t see it applied often enough. When it comes to something like (strategies about / popularizing interest in) predictability of the Singularity, for example, people bring up objections like “you’ll never be able to convince anyone that something big and potentially dangerous might happen based off of extrapolations of current trends”, but the outside view response “then explain global warming” actually narrows the discussion and points out features of the problem that might not have been obvious.
It’s sad and true. For instance automatically thinking of reference classes for beliefs and strategies can be useful but I don’t see it applied often enough. When it comes to something like (strategies about / popularizing interest in) predictability of the Singularity, for example, people bring up objections like “you’ll never be able to convince anyone that something big and potentially dangerous might happen based off of extrapolations of current trends”, but the outside view response “then explain global warming” actually narrows the discussion and points out features of the problem that might not have been obvious.
You can use outside view arguments, just not connotations of “outside view”.