Well, the critical point is whether NN are currently on a track to AGI. If they are not, then one cannot extrapolate anything. Compare: steam engine technology is also not going to eventually become AGI, so how would it look if someone wrote about the characteristics of steam engine technology and tried to predict the future of AGI based on those characteristics?
My own research (which started with NN, but tried to find ways to get it to be useful for AGI) is already well beyond the point where the statements you make about NN are of any relevance. Never mind what will be happening in 5, 10 or 20 years.
It looks like you are on track to hard takeoff, but from other domains I know that people tend to overestimate their achievements 10-100 times, so I have to be a little bit sceptical. NN is much closer to AGI than steam engines anyway.
Well, the critical point is whether NN are currently on a track to AGI. If they are not, then one cannot extrapolate anything. Compare: steam engine technology is also not going to eventually become AGI, so how would it look if someone wrote about the characteristics of steam engine technology and tried to predict the future of AGI based on those characteristics?
My own research (which started with NN, but tried to find ways to get it to be useful for AGI) is already well beyond the point where the statements you make about NN are of any relevance. Never mind what will be happening in 5, 10 or 20 years.
It looks like you are on track to hard takeoff, but from other domains I know that people tend to overestimate their achievements 10-100 times, so I have to be a little bit sceptical. NN is much closer to AGI than steam engines anyway.