I think we disagree on the likelihood of x-risk advocates having such a precise level of impact and power. If AI x-risk advocates don’t have much sway over the political demands of an anti-AI movement, then I don’t think we have much to worry about.
Your argument seems to treat “pause/stop AI” as almost like an info-hazard, but it’s really quite an obvious idea. If “pause/stop AI” becomes a core idea in an anti-AI movement where x-risk advocates lack power, I’d expect that happens because it’s memetically fit and other people were saying it as well, so it probably would’ve happened anyways.
In my mind, the world’s where there is political will for a pause are mostly the ones where there is a broad understanding that if we don’t stop building AI, it is going to replace humanity, and this motivates the need for an international pause. Similarly, I think a pause that happens without the USG having been AGI-pilled seems really unlikely, and it’s also very hard for me to imagine the current administration doing a unilateral pause.
Overall, I think if “pause/stop AI” succeeds at all, it will probably succeed substantively, the slice of worlds where this doesn’t happen seem very narrow, because it’s a big ask.
I think we disagree on the likelihood of x-risk advocates having such a precise level of impact and power. If AI x-risk advocates don’t have much sway over the political demands of an anti-AI movement, then I don’t think we have much to worry about.
Your argument seems to treat “pause/stop AI” as almost like an info-hazard, but it’s really quite an obvious idea. If “pause/stop AI” becomes a core idea in an anti-AI movement where x-risk advocates lack power, I’d expect that happens because it’s memetically fit and other people were saying it as well, so it probably would’ve happened anyways.
In my mind, the world’s where there is political will for a pause are mostly the ones where there is a broad understanding that if we don’t stop building AI, it is going to replace humanity, and this motivates the need for an international pause. Similarly, I think a pause that happens without the USG having been AGI-pilled seems really unlikely, and it’s also very hard for me to imagine the current administration doing a unilateral pause.
Overall, I think if “pause/stop AI” succeeds at all, it will probably succeed substantively, the slice of worlds where this doesn’t happen seem very narrow, because it’s a big ask.