Summarizing my mental model for cross-check (intent is descriptive, not normative):
in a scenario where alignment is achieved and AGI requires compute requiring corporate-scale resources, the AGI will be aligned with the values of a subset of corporate and state actors modulo tactics - (i expect something like a humanity-CEP-aligned sovereign to be actively avoided.) this may prompt consolidation of power (away from the currently multipolar environment), or multipolarity may be preserved if technology-theft or a tactical equivalent is achievable. in either case, power concentration will considerably increase (in a geopolitical sense with medium confidence, and in an individual sense wrt differences in net worth etc with high confidence.)
this increase in power concentration will substantially reduce constraints on the actions of powerful actors resulting from the agency/values of the broader population; public opinion will remain a powerful force, but it will be steerable by powerful actors to a significantly greater extent than presently so (such that public discourse acts as a proxy-battleground for relevant corporate/state actors, without slack for other actors to meaningfully nudge the overton window per their own values.) in both unipolar and multipolar branches, this results in accretion of all resources/degrees of freedom to a small oligarchy (the difference being that in a multipolar terrain, this accretion is incentivised by competition pressures between powerful actors—and in a unipolar terrain, it results from the unfettered nature of those same actors.)
Summarizing my mental model for cross-check (intent is descriptive, not normative):
in a scenario where alignment is achieved and AGI requires compute requiring corporate-scale resources, the AGI will be aligned with the values of a subset of corporate and state actors modulo tactics - (i expect something like a humanity-CEP-aligned sovereign to be actively avoided.) this may prompt consolidation of power (away from the currently multipolar environment), or multipolarity may be preserved if technology-theft or a tactical equivalent is achievable. in either case, power concentration will considerably increase (in a geopolitical sense with medium confidence, and in an individual sense wrt differences in net worth etc with high confidence.)
this increase in power concentration will substantially reduce constraints on the actions of powerful actors resulting from the agency/values of the broader population; public opinion will remain a powerful force, but it will be steerable by powerful actors to a significantly greater extent than presently so (such that public discourse acts as a proxy-battleground for relevant corporate/state actors, without slack for other actors to meaningfully nudge the overton window per their own values.) in both unipolar and multipolar branches, this results in accretion of all resources/degrees of freedom to a small oligarchy (the difference being that in a multipolar terrain, this accretion is incentivised by competition pressures between powerful actors—and in a unipolar terrain, it results from the unfettered nature of those same actors.)