I think they’re misreading the scaling curves, because as of now it is very dependent on good verifiers for the problems at hand, which is basically math and coding are the only domains where very good verifiers are in place.
This is still major if true, because eating coding/math absolutely speeds up AI progress, but there’s a very important caveat to the results that makes me think they’re wrong about it leading to ASI.
I think they’re misreading the scaling curves, because as of now it is very dependent on good verifiers for the problems at hand, which is basically math and coding are the only domains where very good verifiers are in place.
This is still major if true, because eating coding/math absolutely speeds up AI progress, but there’s a very important caveat to the results that makes me think they’re wrong about it leading to ASI.