There’s a background assumption in these discussions about anthropics, that there is a single correct answer, but I think that the correct probability distribution depends on what your aim is.
Say you’re living in a civilization on a continent, and you’re not sure whether there’s another civilization on a faraway continent. God speaks, and tells you that before He created the world, He wasn’t sure whether to make one populated continent or two, so He flipped a coin to decide. Heads one continent, tails two. What is the probability that there is a second civilization on your world?
Say your government is deciding whether to send a sailing expedition to search for the second civilization. If you’re alone, then the fruitless expedition costs -$3 million. If you’re not alone, you find a trading partner, and net +$2 million.
There are two possible worlds: should the possible single civilization lose $3 million, in order for the possible two civilizations to each gain $2 million? If you want to maximize expected average wealth, the answer is no, and if you want to maximize expected total wealth, the answer is yes. This preference induces a probability distribution: either SIA or SSA, depending on whether you care about the average or total.
What I don’t get, is what the answer is if you want to maximize expected personal wealth. (That is, the wealth of your civilization, ignoring others.) I notice I am confused. I almost feel like the question is ill-defined, though I don’t know why it would be. I guess this question is what anthropics is about, and I just answered an easier question above. Maybe we should be looking for the gap between the two?
(I made this point before, though less straightforwardly.)
I’ve stopped following most anthropics discussions in recent years, so I’m not sure how much subsequent progress there has been on “selfish anthropics”, but I guess not much, judging from the backlinks to Stuart’s post?
There’s a background assumption in these discussions about anthropics, that there is a single correct answer, but I think that the correct probability distribution depends on what your aim is.
Say you’re living in a civilization on a continent, and you’re not sure whether there’s another civilization on a faraway continent. God speaks, and tells you that before He created the world, He wasn’t sure whether to make one populated continent or two, so He flipped a coin to decide. Heads one continent, tails two. What is the probability that there is a second civilization on your world?
Say your government is deciding whether to send a sailing expedition to search for the second civilization. If you’re alone, then the fruitless expedition costs -$3 million. If you’re not alone, you find a trading partner, and net +$2 million.
There are two possible worlds: should the possible single civilization lose $3 million, in order for the possible two civilizations to each gain $2 million? If you want to maximize expected average wealth, the answer is no, and if you want to maximize expected total wealth, the answer is yes. This preference induces a probability distribution: either SIA or SSA, depending on whether you care about the average or total.
What I don’t get, is what the answer is if you want to maximize expected personal wealth. (That is, the wealth of your civilization, ignoring others.) I notice I am confused. I almost feel like the question is ill-defined, though I don’t know why it would be. I guess this question is what anthropics is about, and I just answered an easier question above. Maybe we should be looking for the gap between the two?
(I made this point before, though less straightforwardly.)
Some possibly relevant/interesting links for you:
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/93oeqzF7ZEKbd9jdx/anthropic-atheism#oLdGced6usmHd2Ytq
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/c73kPDr8pZGdZSe3q/solving-selfishness-for-udt
I’ve stopped following most anthropics discussions in recent years, so I’m not sure how much subsequent progress there has been on “selfish anthropics”, but I guess not much, judging from the backlinks to Stuart’s post?
Can I suggest my solution to anthropics? Selfishness is discussed here.