I think the most dangerous version of 3 is a sort of Chesterton’s fence, where people get rid of seemingly unjustified social norms without realizing that they where socially beneficial. (Decline in high g birthrates might be an example.) Though social norms are instrumental values, not beliefs, and when a norm was originally motivated by a mistaken belief, it can still be motivated by recognizing that the norm is useful, which doesn’t require holding on to the mistaken belief.
I think that makes sense, but sometimes you can’t necessarily motivate a useful norm “by recognizing that the norm is useful” to the same degree that you can with a false belief. For example there may be situations where someone has an opportunity to violate a social norm in an unobservable way, and they could be more motivated by the idea of potential punishment from God if they were to violate it, vs just following the norm for the greater (social) good.
Do you have an example for 4? It seems rather abstract and contrived.
Hard not to sound abstract and contrived here, but to say a bit more, maybe there is no such thing as philosophical progress (outside of some narrow domains), so by doing philosophical reflection you’re essentially just taking a random walk through idea space. Or philosophy is a memetic parasite that exploits bug(s) in human minds to spread itself, perhaps similar to (some) religions.
Overall, I think the risks from philosophical progress aren’t overly serious while the opportunities are quite large, so the overall EV looks comfortably positive.
I think the EV is positive if done carefully, which I think I had previously been assuming, but I’m a bit worried now that most people I can attract to the field might not be as careful as I had assumed, so I’ve become less certain about this.
I think that makes sense, but sometimes you can’t necessarily motivate a useful norm “by recognizing that the norm is useful” to the same degree that you can with a false belief. For example there may be situations where someone has an opportunity to violate a social norm in an unobservable way, and they could be more motivated by the idea of potential punishment from God if they were to violate it, vs just following the norm for the greater (social) good.
Hard not to sound abstract and contrived here, but to say a bit more, maybe there is no such thing as philosophical progress (outside of some narrow domains), so by doing philosophical reflection you’re essentially just taking a random walk through idea space. Or philosophy is a memetic parasite that exploits bug(s) in human minds to spread itself, perhaps similar to (some) religions.
I think the EV is positive if done carefully, which I think I had previously been assuming, but I’m a bit worried now that most people I can attract to the field might not be as careful as I had assumed, so I’ve become less certain about this.